European University research shows there is no ‘pull factor’ for migrants from Libya

Cusumano is a Jean Monnet Fellow at the Migration Policy Centre of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, and a PhD Graduate (2012) of the EUI, Florence. Villa is a Research Fellow at the Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale – ISPI, Milano.

“The argument that maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) operations act as a ‘pull factor’ of irregular seaborne migration has become commonplace during the Mediterranean ‘refugee crisis’”, they say: “This claim has frequently been used to criticize humanitarian non-governmental organizations (NGOs) conducting SAR off the coast of Libya, which are considered to provide “an incentive for human smugglers to arrange departures” (Italian Senate 2017: 9)”. In this policy brief, Cusumano and Villa scrutinised this argument by examining monthly migratory flows from Libya to Italy between 2014 and October 2019. They found no relationship between the presence of NGOs at sea and the number of migrants leaving Libyan shores. Drawing on official statistics and examining three-day averages, the study showed the numbers rescued depend on the numbers leaving. It found a stronger link this year between the number of migrant crossings and either political stability in Libya or the weather, rather than NGO ships at sea.

The study found that in 2015, the total number of departures from Libya slightly decreased relative to 2014 even though migrants rescued by NGOs increased from 0.8 to 13% of the total number of people rescued at sea. After July 2017, the number of migrants departing from Libya plummeted even though NGOs had become far and away the largest provider of search and rescue by far. It also found that in the 85 days in which the NGOs were present in the search and rescue mission there were no more departures than the 225 days in which there were Libyan patrol boats.

Instead, the study showed the big decline in crossings in 2017 was linked to the deal struck between the Italian government and various Libyan militia to keep migrants from attempting sea crossings.

Since publication on November 18, the paper had more than 6,000 page views and downloads. This is the highest and quickest usage statistics a publication has had in Cadmus. “This is an important study”, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, retwitting an article on The Guardian reporting on the research. (@OnuItalia)